Iran is looking different with the change in command at the highest level, although the Supreme Leader is the ultimate source of power. President Masoud Pezeshkian came in power with the promise to deliver on his promises of making the lives of ordinary Iranians comfortable and less worrisome.
He comes from a reformist party which takes a relatively moderate stance towards their relations with the West, Particularly the United States. One Pertinent topic under deliberations these days is Nuclear Program of Iran. Negotiations between Iranian and US officials are under way in the mediation of Oman in Muscat and Rome alternatively. Iran is being under the pump from European powers and the United States for allegedly breaching its commitments. Till date, five rounds have been concluded and the talks are still hanging in the balance, with no party keen on making a hasty decision while crafting the minutest of the details.
One thing is worth-mentioning that is the resolve the Trump Administration to struck a deal with Iran on this hot topic for two specific reasons. The Foremost reason lies in the revocation of the previously concluded deal called JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), with that in mind Trump wants a nuclear deal with Iran to assuage his populace and allies that feared nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Secondly, Trump is eager to champion a deal to testify his narrative that he is a deal maker and peace propagator, even though so far he has only Indo-Pak ceasefire under his belt which is also debatable.
Contemporaneously, one should break down the details that are gathered from the deal-making under way. The ‘Israel factor’ will surely be at the heart of the negotiations. Time will tell how it would impact the future deal. United States is pushing hard to make Iran comply with its demands of dismantling its nuclear program completely and significantly shun its role in the region by cutting its assistance to its proxies in the region like Houthis in Yemen.
On the contrary, Iran desires all western sanctions including U.S sanctions of all kinds and forms to be lifted instantly, in return for a regional Nuclear Infrastructure that would involve Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and other potential Arab partners as well. In a brief description which has come out, the Iran would permit more IAEA’s (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspections to its nuclear sites and facilities.
Moreover, the Iranian government will collaborate with KSA, UAE and other proposed partners with the peaceful nuclear energy, Uranium enrichment, development and research. It’s yet to be seen whether this plan get traction or earmarked by the concerned authorities. The plan proposed by the foreign minister of Iran to his counterpart in talks Steve Witkoff is highly ambitious.
The proposal also outlines some vague but prospective investment opportunities for U.S. Nuclear Energy market. It is essential to note that U.S. is aiming to rejuvenate its nuclear energy sector and such an offer is made after a thorough examination of the Washington’s needs and future goals. After delineating the series of events in current Hamas-Israel war, the regional sway has diminished drastically. In such circumstances, Iran would surely want to secure a deal preferably on his own terms. For the only viable deterrent now Iran has its nuclear program around which its whole foreign and domestic policy rotates.
Iran would want to have all the limitations on its trade be lifted immediately so it could recover from the economic crunch it has faced for several years. Trump, however, is wary of this geopolitical constraint of Iran while negotiating a high-priced nuclear deal.
Furthermore, a relatively nascent factor which is in the hindsight is of Syria’s changing fortunes and leadership. Iran has enjoyed decades of amicable and often assertive relations with Syria, particularly after the Arab Spring and during the whole Syrian Civil war. Syria had been a part of Iran’s Axis of Restance. Now, the dynamics have shifted and a new leader is in place.
More prominently, That leader (Ahmed-al-Sha’ra), a former ISIS commander, now the interim President of Syria has recently met President Donald Trump in Riyadh in a meeting facilitated by the Saudi de-facto ruler Muhammad-bin-Salman (MBS). The strategic depth of Iran was gone the day Bashar-al-Assad’s regime was toppled, however the aforementioned meeting brought an unexpected news for Syria. Trump in a gathering announced the termination of all sanctions on the Syria with the immediate effect. It implied that Syria would now be in the bloc of Saudi Arabia, a fatal blow to Iran.
By this, Iran lost a long standing ally and a supply route to its most formidable proxy in the Middle East, the Hezbollah of Lebanon. Additionally, Iran cannot rollback its nuclear program. It has suffered miserably and paid a huge price to stay its nuclear ambitions alive. Now, in the crunch moment it is the time to make or break. It is rightly said that Diplomacy is an art and the one who masters it secure for its country what the munitions and firepower could not.
The previous nuclear deal is yet to expire in the October this year. Both the Iranian and American officials would be putting their best to avoid the loopholes which ultimately provided one party to exit from it. The deliberations may take a few more rounds as the stakes are high and both parties are eyeing to strike a best deal for their nation and for the whole humanity.
Nuclear non-proliferation is a pertinent issue for all the ages to come until all the nukes are dismantled which is a distant reality. There is a common understanding among nations outside P5 that the Nuclear Non-proliferation Regime is highly discriminating. Those of whom who are outside the NSG and have tested nukes after 1968 are called non-nuclear states. Such a discrepancy should be addressed but as mentioned earlier the nuclear weapons are too priced to be given away so easily.
This is the demand and the undertaking of P5 in the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation) treaty that they would gradually dismantle their nuclear weapons and would encourage only peaceful and civilian uses of nuclear energy. However, up until now nukes are the most strategic component in the deterrence calculation of any nuclear power. A recent misadventure between India and Pakistan captured the global attention and ultimately U.S. intervened to cease the hostilities.
