The political landscape of South Asia is yet again in flux, with Bangladesh at the heart of this revolution. Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister, has surprised the nation with her resignation and fleeing the country. This has started a chain of events which could lead to significant changes in the country’s internal and regional alignments. An interim government led by Muhammad Yunus promises fair and free elections, so moving away from India’s long-standing influence seems possible. Alarm bells have gone off in New Delhi because this development has also opened opportunities for Pakistan to reconnect with Dhaka.

Both India and Bangladesh have seen a complicated relationship under Hasina, i.e., based on bilateral strategic ties in matters of defence, trade, and regional geopolitics but at the same time, driven by deep-seated resentment. But signs of changing political tides suggest that New Delhi’s prestigious standing may be waning soon. The reinvigorated Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which is traditionally known for its antagonistic posturing toward India, is making sweeping political gains.

If the BNP triumphs in the upcoming elections, New Delhi may find itself hard-pressed to influence Bangladeshi foreign policy, especially considering that the party seems to be riding on anti-Indian sentiment to garner support from the public. BNP’s demand that India should extradite Sheikh Hasina has wounded relations even more and cemented the views of Indian intervention in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs.

A Window of Opportunity for Pakistan

While there are several concerns on the plate for India, Pakistan unexpectedly finds itself with an advantage. The changing dynamics in Dhaka afford Islamabad an unusual opportunity to reset relations with Bangladesh that have been soured by an assortment of past grievances. For decades, the diplomatic interaction between the two countries was limited due to the strained relations resulting from the trauma of the 1971 war. However, with Hasina’s exit and the shifting political winds in Bangladesh, a strategic opportunity now comes before Pakistan for pushing on the reconciliation move and confidence-building measures.

While some quarters of the Bangladeshi Society for Pakistan continue to demand an official apology from Pakistan for the events of 1971, Islamabad appears to focus more on the future than the past. Syed Ahmed Maroof, Pakistan High Commissioner to Bangladesh, recently echoed the same sentiment by saying Islamabad wished “to create a new beginning.” The silence on an official apology is indeed a difficult issue in diplomatic rhetoric, but improvement in the relations between the two countries is visible in recent developments.

The 76th death anniversary of Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah was celebrated in Dhaka on an exceptional scale; it was indeed one of the most visible signs of the thaw since the celebrations incorporated everything from Urdu poetry to singing, which, juxtaposed with post-independence Bangladesh, were unprecedented. Adding to the striking contrast was the idea of renaming Bangabandhu Avenue to Jinnah Avenue, which a few years back was inconceivable.

This change in the rhetoric could symbolize a change in Bangladesh’s perception of Pakistan that could then facilitate larger cooperation. These steps also include tangible actions beyond the symbolic ones. The recent purchase of ammunition and weapons from the Pakistan Ordnance Factory by Bangladesh can be viewed as a strong step towards defence cooperation.

One highly regarded Bangladesh Air Force unit also participated in Pakistan’s “Indus Shield-2024”. With increased improving ties, the recovery of economic and trade relations can also be seen with the arrival of an official Pakistani cargo vessel to the port of Chittagong, a landmark from which one could expect more commercial exchanges thereafter.

There has also occurred a historical moment in the terms of diplomacy, when Shehbaz Sharif conferred privately with Bangladesh Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus establishing the resolve of both sides to rejuvenate bilateral ties. The officials contemplated all fields of cooperation-inducing among other things, youth exchange programs to promote sensitivity and capacity building. Some of them include:

• Foreign secretary-level talks to resolve outstanding issues.
• Reactivation of the Joint Economic Commission (JEC) to pave the way for stronger economic ties.
• Enhanced business opportunities from direct commercial flights between Pakistan and Bangladesh.
• The sale of weapons and equipment to Bangladesh had been proposed.
• There is a renewed initiative to revive the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

A New Chapter in South Asian Diplomacy?

The new political scene in Bangladesh offers Pakistan an extraordinary opportunity to consider reconceptualizing strategy. Success will depend, however, on Islamabad being able to work with Dhaka strategically and diplomatically. Creating a good relationship with Bangladesh means going beyond symbolic actions to establishing ground-level collaborations on mutual respect and common interests. It is imperative to examine thoroughly the options of people-to-people interactions, trade, and regional joint efforts.

In the meantime, India has been given the arduous task of seeing to it that it does not excessively project its influence across Bangladesh. Anything that goes even a little beyond diplomacy will surely offend the Bangladeshi electorate, with the BNP likely to capitalize on any anti-India sentiment.

New Delhi must therefore tread carefully, balancing its strategic aims with a more moderate approach in its diplomacy so as not to allow Dhaka to drift further from its sphere of influence.

Bangladesh’s foreign policy choice is at a turning point that may redraw the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Whereas India is reconsidering its approach, Pakistan must now grab this unique opportunity to rewrite the narrative of its relationship with Bangladesh. If this is done sincerely, it may signal the beginning of a new era of regional diplomacy in which dysfunctional historical baggage would be unburdened in favour of dialogue and a shared agenda for development.