Emerging technologies have transformed the defense postures of states, and the major states are integrating them into their systems. India is no exception, as it also incorporates modern technologies into its defense system. One such advancement is the lethal autonomous weapons system (LAWS), a weaponry system based on AI and robotics that provides offensive and defensive capabilities, enabling it to target the adversary without human involvement.
LAWS are divided into three groups based on their level of autonomy: tele-operation, semi-autonomous, and fully autonomous systems. India has, till now, incorporated tele-operation and semi-autonomous weapons. Today, LAWS are integrated into the three major fields of the Indian defense, namely the Mhow (Army), INS Valsura (Navy), and Air Force Station Rajokri (Air Force). This integration in the Indian Defense brings several implications for Pakistan, which Pakistan needs to counter through certain steps to maintain regional stability.
The Indian army is using the LAWS for border security and conventional weaponry systems, such as the rail-mounted robotics that can easily recognize faces and facial expressions, and are particularly used in the border areas by the army. Furthermore, several swarms and drones have been upgraded by integrating Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) features, which give them the characteristics to detect and attack targets independently. Also, the army is taking a step to equip the soldiers with devices, which are light, convenient, and easy to wear, that possess Natural Language Processing (NLP) features to expand their abilities to collect information regarding the opponents and understand them.
Similarly, the Navy has amalgamated LAWS into its system, such as maritime motion pattern recognition & anomaly detection, acoustic and magnetic signature analysis, and AI-enabled voice transcription software. It initiated its project Autonomous Fast Intercept Boat (AFIB) in 2022, which performs autonomous functions to examine, rescue, and conduct surveillance even in opaque maritime traffic and shallow water. In 2023, it initiated its first underwater vehicles (UUV), named Neerakshi, to conduct underwater surveys for mine revealing and discarding. In addition, the AI-powered Combat Management System (CMS) is also being promoted in warships to increase their timely and fast assessment and decision-making.
Consequently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is also adopting autonomous weapons into its systems, such as the enemy aircraft activity recognition & classification system that identifies enemy aircraft and gives them predictive analysis features. To replace the Russian MiG-29 K fighter jets, the IAF has designed its Manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) aptitudes, with its Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF) program. Further, IAF is also retaining predictive monitoring systems, mainly the PRO-HM+ system, for the preservation of weapons and aircraft by ascertaining tendencies, arrangements, and connections of aircraft behavior.
India and Pakistan, since their independence, have had hostile relations because of several factors, mainly national identity, territory, and the power position in the region. India has a hegemonic behavior, while Pakistan has always challenged India’s desire to dominate the region. Therefore, India considers Pakistan “the regional destabilizer”. After the inception of nuclear capabilities by both states, the region saw a strategic balance. However, the advancement of LAWS in the Indian defense has transformed warfare capabilities, raising concerns about the strategic balance between India and Pakistan. These developments have several implications for Pakistan.
The LAWS integration has increased both India’s defensive and offensive capabilities. As a result, it gains benefits, specifically in ISR, border management, and timely adversary targeting, which disturbs the existing strategic balance in the region. Further, India’s disproportionate expansion of LAWS brings the threat of a new and technology-driven arms race in South Asia.
In addition, crisis escalation between both states may be rapid because the autonomous systems may take immediate decisions and leave less time for negotiations. Moreover, LAWS threatens the International Humanitarian Law (IHL), mainly the principles of proportionality, distinction, and precautions, because a machine cannot distinguish between a non-combatant and a combatant. The integration of LAWS in the Indian defense raises similar concerns. For instance, during an armed conflict between the two states, rapid decisions and operations that violate IHL and cause humanitarian concerns.
To take countermeasures, Pakistan needs to develop a comprehensive policy to ensure its national security and regional balance with India. Firstly, Pakistan needs to invest in its autonomous capabilities, including the development of electronic warfare systems, enhancement of cyber warfare tools, and establishment of direct-energy weapons (DEWs), which aim to increase the asymmetric capabilities against India.
Secondly, Pakistan must invest in both the major types of LAWS, that is, ‘human-in-the-loop’ and ‘Human-on-the-loop’, which will increase surveillance, reconnaissance, and offensive systems. However, Pakistan needs to ensure that its developments closely align with the IHL to avoid humanitarian casualties.
Thirdly, to opt for these developments, Pakistan must go for international partnerships with technologically advanced states, such as China, which can help in both technological transfer and capacity-building. Fourthly, Pakistan and India should be engaged through Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) to reduce the risks associated with the LAWS and to form a code of conduct related to their manufacturing and usage. Hence, these diplomatic engagements and steps will help in controlling the arms race and bringing stability to the region.
