The South China Sea is a lifeline waterway for the Southeast Asia region and has transformed into a geopolitical flash point. Overlapping territorial claims by several nations, coupled with its rich natural resources, have turned it into an area of controversy. This has all been accentuated by the growing rise of China as a world power making expansive claims of its own over the disputed waters. The recent deployment of missiles by the United States in the Philippines was only adding to the growing flames, raising concerns that this could escalate further into a greater conflict in the region. This essay will analyze the rising tensions in the South China Sea, employing historical context, competing claims, and their implications for regional and global stability.

Since the rise of civilization, every superpower has tried to show its supremacy by influencing the world around, be it ancient empires like the Romans and Ottomans or colonial powers like British or Spain. The most recent example of this kind of influence was the ‘Cold War’ where two superpowers repeatedly posed against each other indirectly on various fronts and arenas. This was evidenced by the U.S. expanding its influence into Southeast Asia through involvement in the Vietnam War. After the fall of Saigon in 1975, forces were withdrawn; however, over the past few decades, US presence within the region has considerably heightened.

With the fall of the Soviet Union, the US seemed on the verge of becoming the only superpower in the world. Unfortunately, from the stand of the US, this did not last for counter China has led the US for long as China was competing for the superpower’s spirit with the US. The need to raise its bullying profile in the South China Sea as it places its military bases in the South China Sea. Tension was high between China and the US because of the rigid US stance on the Taiwan issue and recent military exercises in the South China Sea.

In 2023, The U.S. military has been intensifying its efforts to bolster deterrence measures against China through military exercises in and around the South China Sea, especially in the Taiwan Strait. Under the banner of “freedom of navigation operations,” the US has deployed aircraft carriers and submarines, with multiple trespassings into Chinese territory. According to a report, at least 11 nuclear-powered attack submarines and 2 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines were found in the Chinese waters. Beijing responded to these exercises as deliberately “provoking risk” and called it a threat to its national security. While these tensions de-escalated after a bilateral meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Biden, US involvement in the South China Sea continues till date.

China has claimed the South China Sea and its natural resources as its sovereign territory for a couple of decades. It is estimated that almost 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas are present in the South China Sea. The Chinese attempt to solely claim all these resources has antagonized the other claimants such as Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan. Over the past several years, China has claimed many islands in the sea and located its military bases to prove its presence among them, especially in Paracel and Spratly Islands.

The South China Sea remains at the center of the dispute, especially the argument over the Spratly Islands’ Ren’ai Jiao. Philippine President Marcos Jr., who assumed office in 2022, denied his predecessor’s conciliatory stance towards China. As tensions with China rise, the Philippines has consolidated its Indo-Pacific neighborhood alliances. President Marcos signed agreements on the extension of base access, commencement of joint exercises, and, for the first time, transfers of weapons with the United States. In March 2024, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin declared that the Mutual Defense Treaty between the U.S. and the Philippines does apply under the operation of armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft from both nations in the South China Sea. Recently, Japan has increased its contribution by selling military equipment to both the Philippines and Vietnam to enhance their maritime security capabilities.

Since August 2023, at the instigation of the US, the Philippines has stepped up its provocations on Chinese islands like Ren’ai Jiao and Huangyan Dao. This came after the US had been granted access to four new military bases in addition to those it already possessed within the country. The Philippines and the US held a joint military drill this year that was called Exercise Balikatan. In these military exercises, the US deployed its mid-ranged Typhoon missile system in the Philippines. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reacted aggressively to that move and warned that such a move may lead to regional tension and ignite an arms race. The Philippines’ foreign ministry didn’t respond immediately to the Chinese concerns. He later raised these concerns again at a summit in Laos with the Chinese Foreign Minister, who was assured that this deployment of missiles was temporary by his Philippine counterpart.

While both sides are escalating tensions, the world appears to be on the verge of witnessing a new Cold War-like tension between the United States and China. While it has already beaten the US on the economic front, China has no big accomplishments on the military front at the global level. America faces the worst ever economic crisis ever in its history, and with its external debts soaring to 35 trillion dollars, it has kept its reputation as a superpower of the globe intact. With the conflict in Ukraine and the Palestinian conflict, the United States is already busy on two fronts, while the recent happenings suggest its intention to open another front with China in Southeast Asia.

The US has tried to provoke China on multiple occasions on the issue of Taiwan, and every time China has de-escalated it, saying it does not want to open a new conflict. This deployment of the missile system in the Philippines appears to be another act of provocation by the US to threaten the Chinese territories. Past reactions are something China can look up to and will withhold its response in the face of de-escalation on the diplomatic front.

The US had deployed similar tactics when it provoked Russia to invade Ukraine through malicious propaganda and threats. The world stands on the brink of another world war, where a slight miscalculation may erupt into a global conflict. As one can say, since the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world has never stood this close to nuclear war. The US continues to lose its standing on the global level, and all these confrontations seem to be an act of desperation to show its existence on a global scale.

The current era is marked by significant unpredictability, making it challenging to forecast future developments with any degree of certainty. But one thing is certain if the events go on in the same pattern, then the world may not look for a cold war but a hot war.

To prevent a catastrophic conflict, all parties must barrage into diplomacy and adhere to international law. The international community, including major powers like the United States and China, must work together in cohesion to stabilize the situation in that region. China’s increasing influence in the region and US direct involvement through the Philippines might bring up several concerns. Although both states are the largest trading partners of one another, the future of their relationship remains uncertain. If the South China Sea dispute remains unresolved, it has the potential to impede future relations and cause problems for both countries.